Heft IQ Executive Radar · 2026-10-30
Nine Weeks Left: Which Q4 Deals to Commit and Which to Cut
Deals that slip past their close date rarely recover. Before the year-end forecast call, sort partner deals by the signals that predict a slip, not by the rep's confidence.
What the data says
Slippage is the clearest warning sign in a late-year pipeline. In Ebsta and Pavilion's 2024 benchmark, deal slippage ran between 34% and 46% a quarter, and win rates fell 83% once deals slipped. Deals that slipped one to four weeks lost about a third of their win rate. Xactly's survey of 405 sales and finance leaders found 52% of sales leaders saw forecasts off by 10% or more. Both publishers sell sales software, and these are their own data sets.
Sort the commit by signals, not confidence
Go through every commit deal and check four things: has it slipped its close date, is there a dated next step with the buyer, are commitments to the customer or partner overdue, and is the champion still in the seat. A deal that fails two of the four belongs in best case, not commit. In partner-led deals add a fifth check: has the partner logged activity in the last two weeks.
Give every remaining deal one owned action
For deals that stay, name the one action that moves them this month: a meeting with the economic buyer, a business case, a pricing answer, or a partner re-engagement, with an owner and a date. For deals that move out, record why, so next quarter's forecast starts from evidence. Review the list weekly until close, and only what changed.